NHL awards watch: Can Cale Makar be the first defenseman to win a Hart Trophy since 2000?

Throughout the season I’ll be breaking down the numbers behind the race for each major player award: the Hart, the Norris, the Calder, the Selke, the Vezina, the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard. Numbers of course aren’t everything, but they add much-needed context to the awards race and can help shine a light on players deserving of more recognition while adding caveats to other players who may have some warts. This post will present the top 10 for each category based on a set criteria of guidelines. There is plenty of room for discussion and debate within (and outside) those guidelines.

With one-quarter of the season in the books, it’s a good time to have our first check-in on which players currently lead each awards race. It’s awards watch time, baby!

There’s a lot of room for these races to change over the coming months. Players who started hot might cool off and players who started cold might jump into the race. Still, it’s worth taking a snapshot now to start building some cases for hardware. Just keep in mind how small the samples are.

Last season was a dud as most of the awards were decided by Christmas. This season looks like it could be very different — every race looks wide open.

Data as of Dec. 3

Hart Trophy

Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.

Criteria: Skaters ranked by Net Rating, adjusted by position.

The last time a defenseman won the Hart Trophy was in 2000 when Chris Pronger won. It was also the last time a defenseman was even nominated. Before Pronger, you need to go back another 28 years for the previous defenseman to win: Bobby Orr in 1972. That’s two wins in 51 years.

And that’s for a reason — it’s extremely difficult for a defenseman to be as valuable as a forward or goalie over a full season. Since 2007-08, no defenseman has ever led the league in Net Rating. Only once has a defenseman even finished top three (Brent Burns in 2016-17; he won the Norris and finished fourth in Hart voting).

Can all that change this season? Cale Makar is certainly making his case for it. The highest Net Rating in a season for a defenseman is plus-26 by Cale Makar in 2021-22 (plus-23 for a non-Makar defender). He’s on pace for plus-29 this season.

It’s always impressive when a defenseman leads a team in scoring. It’s even more impressive on a Colorado Avalanche team that has Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen on it. Makar has a four-point lead on MacKinnon and is currently pacing for 121 points, a Bobby Orr-esque stat line. It’s tough to imagine he actually gets there, but if any defenseman can do it, it’s him.

What makes Makar so special is not just his point-scoring, but his impact in every facet of the game. Colorado’s play with and without the puck runs through him and it shows with 57 percent of the expected goals and 64 percent of the goals, both team-leading marks. That’s an impact felt at both ends of the ice where Colorado drives more offense and defense with Makar out there. He’s extremely involved in creating chances one way and stopping them the other way.

Makar isn’t even the only defenseman in the Hart Trophy mix, though. Quinn Hughes is next in line and has a pretty strong case of his own.

Hughes was the front-runner for a while after a scintillating scoring stretch, but Makar has caught up with his production (in two fewer games) and has shinier numbers at five-on-five. The two have comparable goals percentages (Hughes does have the edge here), but Makar has a much better expected goals percentage and is stronger relative to his teammates. That plus a much stronger penalty differential in Makar’s favor has created a bit of separation between the two according to Net Rating.

Still, it’s incredibly impressive that Hughes has mostly kept pace with the best defenseman in the world. I’m not sure he can keep this level of value up all season, but the fact he’s in the Hart conversation at all at this juncture is amazing to see. There’s a real possibility the Hart comes down to two defensemen this year, both of whom would be the first defenseman to even be nominated in over two decades.

After those two, there are a lot of other quality options further back.

Nikita Kucherov is treating defense as optional this season, but his offensive ability has been so magnificent that he grades out as the best forward anyway. He’s on pace for 137 points which would be a career high.

David Pastrnak hasn’t quite been on Kucherov’s offensive level, but he makes up ground by being a positive player without the puck. That’s the Bruins Way and it’s good to see he can do that on his own accord without Patrice Bergeron around. Boston refusing to go gentle into the good night is a huge and unexpected development this season, one that Pastrnak’s play has been a big part of. He was a Hart Trophy finalist last year and is pacing for an even better performance this season.

Take your pick between Sam Reinhart and Aleksander Barkov — the two have been almost equally valuable. The duo is right there with Kucherov and Pastrnak in terms of value. They may not have the same shiny offensive numbers, but their elite two-way play at five-on-five makes up for it.

I imagine Connor McDavid will find his way into the top 10 next month and it’s probably odd to see Zach Hyman there instead. That will change in due time, but for now, it’s worth pointing out Hyman’s massive offensive impact this season. He leads the Edmonton Oilers with 1.53 goals per 60, 2.87 points per 60 and 4.4 on-ice goals per 60. The last stat is the reason he’s here — the next highest Oiler, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, is at 3.9 followed by McDavid at 2.8. That’s a huge gap that illustrates how hopeless Edmonton’s offense has been without Hyman on the ice so far.

Norris Trophy

Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.

Criteria: Defensemen who play top-pairing minutes ranked by Net Rating.

We talked a lot about Makar and Hughes in the Hart section; no need to repeat ourselves. If the season ended today, those two would be on 100 percent of the Norris ballots with Makar likely at the top. The third spot is a bit more challenging to figure out.

According to Net Rating, that spot should go to last year’s Norris Trophy winner, Erik Karlsson. Though he’s slowed down in recent games, Karlsson has been as good as expected this season with a twist — he’s actually been a net positive defensively. The Pittsburgh Penguins give up slightly fewer goals and expected goals with Karlsson on the ice which has led to some eye-popping five-on-five rates. His scoring may be down, but that’s mostly due to a broken power play. He’s not excused for that disaster, but once it starts clicking Karlsson has the best chance to make up ground with the two guys above.

It’s always nice to see some new faces on these lists to start the season. We’ll see if they hold, but for now, kudos to Noah Dobson and Brady Skjei who have been excellent this year so far.

Dobson has often been a whipping boy on Long Island but has broken out in a big way this season. He’s taken over as the New York Islanders’ lead back playing 25 minutes and scoring 21 points in 23 games. As for Skjei, 15 points in 23 games is very impressive for someone who has played under five minutes on the power play this season. Skjei is top 10 in five-on-five points, but what’s most impressive has been his defensive game. He’s been on the ice for just 1.8 expected goals against per 60 and 1.96 goals against per 60. Those are some of the best marks in the league. Anytime you can match Jonas Brodin in defensive value you’re probably doing something right.

Mainstays like Alex Pietrangelo, Roman Josi and Josh Morrissey round out the list. It’s great to see the latter proving last year was no fluke, and Morrissey’s defensive impact has been especially noteworthy. That’s a big step-up from last season where his gaudy point totals looked a bit empty-calorie. Morrissey has been on the ice for 0.26 fewer expected goals against per 60 compared to last season and 0.79 fewer goals against per 60.

Selke Trophy

Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.

Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team’s short-handed minutes and face above-average forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating.

Patrice Bergeron is out of the picture and one player in particular is ready to grab the torch and run: Aleksander Barkov. The 2021 Selke winner looks likely to add a second Selke Trophy to his collection with the way he’s started this season.

Whichever way you look at it (best two-way forward or the correct way, best defensive forward), Barkov is the front-runner right now. He’s got 64 percent of the expected goals and 82 percent of the actual goals, allowing 1.93 expected goals against per 60 and just 0.89 goals against per 60. All of those are league-leading marks or close to it — and the best of any forward in a high-usage role. He’s also been an incredible penalty killer, allowing just four goals against per 60 and 5.6 expected goals against per 60. Those are elite marks.

After Barkov, it gets interesting with some new and old faces. Sean Couturier is in the mix, a pleasant sight to see given how much hockey he’s missed. William Karlsson, rejuvenated after a Stanley Cup win, is back to his Selke-caliber ways. Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have been an incredible duo for the staunch New York Rangers. And you can probably pick a lot of players from Carolina (Jordan Staal fell just short of the minutes cutoff), but it’s nice to see Teuvo Teravainen have a defensive resurgence.

The most intriguing name, though, has to be Tyler Seguin. He may not get the toughest minutes on Dallas, but he has been extremely good defensively on the second line. The Dallas Stars allow just 2.11 expected goals against per 60 with Seguin on the ice and just 1.7 actual goals against. That’s among the best marks on the team. The same is true on the penalty kill where he’s been a force in a secondary role. It’s tough to gauge whether Seguin can keep this up, but if he does it’ll be an incredible story of a late-career defensive renaissance.

Calder Trophy

Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL.

Criteria: Rookie skaters ranked by Net Rating, adjusted by position.

Connor Bedard is a transcendent talent, there’s no denying that. To see him rank ninth in Net Rating among rookies is obviously jarring. It’s important to remember there are two sides of the coin at play here: with and without the puck.

Bedard’s plus-2.7 Offensive Rating is easily tops among rookies, as expected. He’s pacing for 41 goals and 71 points, phenomenal numbers for an 18-year-old. He’s been as good as advertised with the puck on his stick despite having to face a ton of defensive pressure every night without much support. He can create something out of nothing and has been incredibly impressive. His 10 five-on-five goals this season lead the league — imagine if the Chicago Blackhawks could ice a competent power play around him.

The question is how much of a pass voters should give him for his work without the puck, which has been less than stellar.

Despite ranking first in Offensive Rating, Bedard drops to ninth among rookies entirely due to a subpar Defensive Rating of minus-1.9. That’s 10th worst among all forwards. With Bedard on the ice, Chicago has allowed 3.4 expected goals against per 60 and 4.2 goals against per 60, both of which are below team average. To be below team average on a team this bad isn’t a great sign. Neither is having a worse goal differential relative to teammates as a result of too many pucks going in the other way.

That Bedard’s defensive numbers are weak shouldn’t be surprising considering his role at the top of the lineup. His usage is something the model does attempt to account for, though it is difficult to know whether it’s accounting for enough in extreme cases such as Bedard’s. For an 18-year-old showing elite offensive flash on a nightly basis, it’s fair to absolve some of Bedard’s defensive shortcomings due to a difficult environment.

Still, it is enough of a wart in his game to leave a window open in the Calder race. There are a lot of people treating this as an open-and-shut case — it shouldn’t be. There have been a lot of talented rookies this season and there are currently a big three challenging Bedard: Brock Faber, Luke Hughes and Joseph Woll.

Faber’s name was apparently taken off the board entirely from some betting markets last week, a move that feels like a massive oversight for arguably the most impactful rookie in the league right now.

I guess defense isn’t sexy, but it’s where Faber — who plays over 23 minutes per night — shines most. He may only have eight points in 21 games, but he drives offense just fine and has been a beast in a shutdown role with Brodin. His plus-2.6 Defensive Rating ranks fifth in the league among defensemen thanks to allowing 1.9 expected goals against per 60 and 2.1 goals against per 60. The Minnesota Wild have struggled this year, but that’s because they’ve been a disaster whenever Faber is on the bench. He deserves a lot more recognition right now.

There will be some who argue his shutdown prowess is aided by playing with Brodin every night. While that argument does have merit, it’s worth noting Brodin’s expected goals percentage jumped 6.4 percentage points year over year, a result of allowing 0.5 fewer expected goals against per 60. The Faber Effect is real.

Hughes’ minutes have been a lot more sheltered in comparison, but his offensive numbers speak for themselves. He’s on pace for 52 points while sporting a 58 percent expected goals rate. That’s impressive for a rookie and we’ll see how he handles a bigger role with Dougie Hamilton out long-term.

As for Woll, he’s been a saviour for a surprisingly middling Toronto Maple Leafs team. He’s usurped the starter’s job from Ilya Samsonov and has been a calm and cool presence between the pipes saving 4.7 goals above expected. He should be in the mix.

This trophy is probably still Bedard’s to lose — he’s been that good offensively — but we should keep an open mind here. Offense isn’t everything.

Vezina Trophy

Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position.

Criteria: Goaltenders who have played half of their team’s games or more, ranked by goals saved above expected courtesy of Evolving Hockey.

In terms of goals saved above expected, the Vezina Trophy race is a dead heat. Both Adin Hill and Thatcher Demko have saved 11.2 goals above expected and have been the bedrock for success for their respective teams.

Hill has the higher save percentage and has saved more goals per game, but there is the question of whether public models underrate the defense in front of him. Logan Thompson’s numbers are also sparkling and that likely speaks to a system advantage that inflates Hill’s numbers. It’s a dead heat, but that caveat may be enough to give Demko the current edge. The Vancouver Canucks aren’t near the top of the Pacific without him.

In third is a very interesting name: Connor Ingram. The Arizona Coyotes goaltender has seized the starting reins in the desert with a scintillating hot streak. He’s won four straight, dethroning the previous Stanley Cup champions by allowing just five goals during that stretch. Whether he maintains it might be tough, but for now, he deserves some applause.

Same goes for Tristan Jarry and Jacob Markstrom. Their teams are struggling, but that’s through no fault of their own. Ignore Markstrom’s save percentage; the defense in front of him has been shockingly porous.

It’s still early so it’s safe to expect changes over the remainder of the season, especially at this position. Still, it’s good to see mainstays like Connor Hellebuyck and Igor Shesterkin creeping up the rankings. Expect them to keep climbing and threatening a top-five position as the season progresses.

Art Ross Trophy

Given to the player who leads the National Hockey League in scoring points at the end of the regular season.

Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season point total.

For once, this is an interesting race and not an award Connor McDavid runs away with in the first two months.

A slow start means McDavid isn’t in the driver’s seat for the Art Ross Trophy, either. Kucherov currently holds an 11-point lead, a gap that might be too much for even McDavid. The margins are slim. For now, it looks to be a 50-50 battle between the two with Kucherov’s current sizeable lead giving him the edge.

MacKinnon, Pastrnak, Leon Draisaitl and Jack Hughes all have the power to challenge as well, though a five-game absence may be too much for Hughes to overcome.

Rocket Richard Trophy

Given to the NHL’s top goal scorer.

Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season goal total.

The best bets right now are a guy who scored 60 goals two years ago and another guy who scored 60 last season.

Despite some off nights, Auston Matthews is on pace to reach that mark this season thanks to several dominant multi-goal efforts. He’s expected to slow down to 54 goals, but that would still put him atop the leaderboard. Pastrnak is right there with him and the duo should be neck-and-neck all season.

After those two, it’s difficult to forecast anyone else hitting 50 at this moment, especially with McDavid starting slow in the goals department. Players currently pacing for that total are expected to slow down, most notably current scoring leader Brock Boeser. His expected goal rate makes his hot start look legit — the model just hasn’t quite caught up yet given his recent goal-scoring history (23-goal pace over the last two seasons).

— Data via Evolving Hockey

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(Photos of Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar: Steph Chambers and Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)

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Kelle Repass

Update: 2024-07-18

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